At a Glance
- Once again, severe thunderstorms will return to the Plains later this week.
- Large hail, damaging winds and at least a few tornadoes are possible.
- More heavy rain, even wet snow, is also forecast for the storm-weary northern Plains.
- This could exacerbate existing flooding in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
Severe thunderstorms and flooding rain are once again possible late this week into the weekend in the Plains from yet another spring storm.
If it seems the weather pattern is stuck in a rut recently, it's not your imagination.
Severe thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in the Plains Friday and Saturday. The previous week, at least 66 tornadoes touched down from the Plains to the South and Ohio Valley April 11-13, including the Salado, Texas, EF3 tornado and the Taopi, Minnesota, EF2 tornado.
Meanwhile, the northern Plains have been hit by three separate storms in the past two weeks.
That siege began with a crippling blizzard that dumped up to 3 feet of snow in North Dakota April 12-14.
Most recently, another storm this past weekend dumped heavy snow, wind and ice that downed hundreds of power poles in western North Dakota, but also spawned a few tornadoes and dumped heavy rain that exacerbated spring flooding in the Red River Valley of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
The recent parade of storms in the Plains will continue later this week as another southward plunge of the jet stream pivots into the central U.S. over warm, humid air. This will give rise to more severe storms that could produce tornadoes, large hail and wind damage as well as heavy rain.
Like last week, this latest spring storm could also generate strong, dry winds over New Mexico and the High Plains from eastern Colorado southward. These conditions could lead to the rapid spread of existing or new wildfires in this drought-ridden area.
Here's a breakdown of the severe weather and heavy rain forecasts.
Severe Weather Outlook
Thursday
The development area for a few severe thunderstorms will shift eastward on Thursday from western portions of Kansas and Oklahoma to the central portions of those states. Western north Texas could also see a few strong to severe thunderstorms.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, but a tornado can't be ruled out.
Friday-Friday Night
Friday afternoon and evening is when severe thunderstorms could hit a broader area of the Plains, particularly from southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa into eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, far northern Texas, western Missouri and northwest Arkansas, as the contours from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center show below.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible threats across all of these areas.
There is some uncertainty in Friday's forecast when it comes to how many storms will develop in locations farther south in the severe threat area, particularly in Oklahoma and far northern Texas. If at least isolated supercell storms develop, then there will be a risk of tornadoes, large hail and wind damage.
Weekend
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday from northeast Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The area with the greatest chance of seeing at least a few severe storms right now is centered on the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, including eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
A new disturbance arriving in the Southern Plains could shift the threat of severe weather back farther to the west on Sunday, particularly in parts of West Texas. That disturbance may go on to produce severe storms in parts of Oklahoma and North Texas on Monday, but details are still uncertain.
Make sure you have a plan in case of severe weather, including where to take shelter. Have multiple ways of receiving National Weather Service watches and warnings that can also wake you up at night, via smartphone wireless emergency alerts, The Weather Channel app and NOAA weather radio.
Flood Outlook
Severe thunderstorms aren't the only concern with this latest spring storm.
Local flash flooding will be a threat with any scattered, slow-moving storms late this week and weekend over eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and extreme northern Texas. Some of these areas picked up 2 to 5 inches of rain Sunday night and some rivers are still above flood stage.
Farther north, at least an inch of rain is a decent bet in much of the northern Plains from Thursday through Sunday, including the eastern two-thirds of North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
This heavy rain, warmer air and melting snow will only aggravate existing river and overland flooding in the Red River Valley as the crest from recent storms and melting snow works its way from north of Fargo northward into Manitoba over the next week or more.
If there's a little good news, there is expected to be less snow with this upcoming warmer storm than either of the past two snowstorms. Only a few slushy inches of wet snow may coat the ground in the western Dakotas, with slightly higher amounts in South Dakota's Black Hills.
Check back for important updates over the next several days as the details of this latest spring storm come into focus.
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