At a Glance
- A cut-off low tracked over the South as a surface low developed in the Gulf of Mexico.
- This system will spread rain, some thunderstorms and gusty winds into much of the South.
- Locally heavy rain could lead to some flooding late this week.
- Some coastal flooding and rip currents are likely as well.
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A low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will spread rain and some thunderstorms across the South this week.
Under the right conditions, low pressure systems can coalesce and then strengthen into tropical cyclones, but in this case, overall conditions are not favorable for subtropical or tropical development of this system even with water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico warmer than average.
This system is moving inland so development is not expected.
(Deeper Dive: What Is A Subtropical Storm?)
Below we take a look at what to expect threats to with this system as it tracks northward.
Happening Now
A thunderstorm stalled over the Fort Lauderdale area Wednesday evening and produced rainfall rates of over 3 inches per hour. A flash flood emergency was issued in Fort Lauderdale Wednesday night as over 20 inches of rain fell in some spots which caused widespread flooding.
(Latest News: Torrential Rains Swamp Fort Lauderdale)
As of Thursday afternoon, rain is spreading northward across the South as the storm moves through Mississippi and Alabama. At least one possible tornado has tracked through south Georgia.
Forecast Timing
Thursday: Rain and breezy conditions will spread across much of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, southern South Carolina and Florida. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated, especially closer to the Gulf Coast.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop as the warm front lifts northward. Damaging wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
Wet weather will continue into Thursday night but will end in areas to the west and will begin to move into parts of eastern Tennessee and across the Carolinas.
Friday: Rain and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southeast to end the workweek. The chance for showers and storms will extend from parts of Alabama and Florida into portions of the mid-Atlantic.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats.
This Weekend: The low pressure system will move through the mid-Atlantic this weekend and bring the chance for a few showers. Some wet weather is also likely in parts of the Northeast.
(Forecast Maps: 7-Day Outlook)
How Much Rain And Any Coastal Impacts?
Rainfall amounts will generally be on the light side for most of the South. Some locally higher totals are possible and could lead to flash flooding in some locations.
Coastal flooding is also anticipated along the northern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The National Weather Service has issued coastal flood advisories for portions of this region. Coastal flooding will be minor to moderate.
Rip currents are also a concern along the Gulf Coast this week, so heed any warnings if you are heading to the beach.
(Warnings And Advisories: NWS Alerts)
Why This System Is So Slow
The jet stream took a southward dip across the central U.S. toward the northern Gulf of Mexico early this week. The jet stream has lifted northward but an upper-low, or a low pressure system higher up in the atmosphere, has become cut off from the jet stream. Without the jet stream to steer it, this means the low will linger over the region for a couple of days and continue to wring out rain.
A surface area of low pressure has formed in the Gulf of Mexico as the upper low meanders across the South. The result will be an increase in wet weather across much of the region.
Another system will move into the central U.S. and will help to push this system northward Thursday and into the Southeast Friday.
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