After a very busy hurricane season last year, meteorologists are yet again expecting above-average hurricane activity in the months to come.
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting a 65% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
If the above-normal season forecast comes true, it would be the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season — which extends from June 1 to November 30.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). That would include three to six major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
A normal Atlantic hurricane season is 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
During last year’s incredibly busy season, there were 21 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Massachusetts felt the powerful remnants of several storms last year.
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA app to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including: the ongoing La Nina that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area 10 years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”
