Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Elsa, formed in the Atlantic on Wednesday night, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. update.
The system has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph is located about 1,020 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands moving west at 23 mph. Forecasters expect it will accelerate west-northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours.
As of 11 p.m. Wednesday, forecasters said it was too early to predict how the system might affect Florida. The five-day forecast has parts of South Florida within the cone of uncertainty by Monday, July 5, when the storm is projected to still be shy of hurricane strength with 60 mph sustained winds.
“On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday,” said NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven.
The governments of Barbados and St. Lucia issued tropical storm warnings for the islands as the system approached Wednesday, and the government of France issued the same warning for Martinique, according to the NHC.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Guadeloupe are under a tropical storm watch, the NHC said.
“Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system,” Beven said. “Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.”
The NHC said that the system could produce rainfall of 3-6 inches, with some areas of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, which could produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
Because the system does not have a well-defined center, the long-range forecast remains uncertain, but it’s expected to slow and turn more northwest as it passes into the Caribbean.
Florida has already endured effects of one tropical system when Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall on the Gulf Coast on June 19. Its center moved ashore in Louisiana, but Florida’s Panhandle saw a lot of rain for what turned out to be a deadly storm as it caused havoc moving through Alabama and Georgia.
When Tropical Storm Elsa forms, it will set the record for the earliest “E”-named system, besting 2020’s Tropical Storm Edouard that formed on July 6.
2020 was a record year with 31 tropical systems, 30 of which received names. NHC forecasters predict 2021 to be another above-average hurricane season with forecasts calling for 13-20 named storms, six-10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes.
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